Video games used to take up a large part of my spare time. Now, my kids rule the gaming consoles. Regardless, dying repeatedly or getting stuck on a level wasn’t the most frustrating — it was losing to simple stuff.
I felt like I understood everything after days and weeks of exploring and picking up new gear or abilities. Having to dedicate even an extra minute to backtrack because I forgot something simple was the worst. All of those memories came screaming back to me after thinking about the fantasy football action over the weekend.
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It’s one thing for players we typically keep on our bench to have good days. Those are bound to happen. But we feel it more when our starters fail. They’re supposed to be the guys we don’t have to worry about. However, in a few cases, let’s see if fantasy managers should feel justified in panicking from Sunday’s results.
Don’t worry, the Lions’ backfield will roar again
If there was one play that encapsulated the Lions’ day at the office, it came on their first drive of the second quarter.
As the post suggests, some Detroit fans will look at this as another highlight for Jared Goff. And it is! David Montgomery even capped off the sequence with a two-yard TD to tie things up. But a few other things stuck out from this single catch and run.
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Pressure Rate: 42.9% (Week 9), 35.3% (Weeks 4-7)
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Time to Pressure: 2.27, 2.54
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Passing Success Rate: 38.1%, 53.8%
Per TruMedia, Jonathan Greenard was in Goff’s face about 2.4 seconds after the snap. The Vikings’ defensive line was a problem the entire game. But we knew DC Brian Flores was going to throw that gas at the Lions’ offensive line. And he lived up to the billing. Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on a third of Goff’s dropbacks (second-highest rate for Goff this season). Accordingly, the Lions’ QB1 hit the turf a season-high five times. Plus, as shown in the clip, he wasn’t the only one on the run from the Vikings’ defenders.
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Adj. Yards Before Contact per Att. (on Early Downs): 0.25 (Week 9), 0.78
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Rushing Success Rate: 25.0%, 41.2%
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Explosive Rushing Rate: 0.0%, 7.2%
On that same play, David Montgomery had to break a tackle before even getting past the line of scrimmage. Jahmyr Gibbs had it even worse. Of the 20 rushing attempts from Sonic and Knuckles, Minnesota met the duo at or behind the LOS on 11 of them. Pass protection, at least for Gibbs, became a liability. But I’m not questioning the guy we drafted in the first round yet.
Gibbs’ 45% of the carries (fourth-lowest of the season) came in a contest where the Lions’ offensive line changes and in-game injuries took their toll. Three of their next five games feature defenses in the bottom half of the league in sack rate. The majority are below-average in yards before contact allowed, too. So, despite the setback in what we thought was a good environment, we should see Detroit’s running game get back on track in Week 10.
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The Bill has come due in Washington
If you’ve stuck with me this long, you know my style. I’ll lead off with a video as the main idea for a topic, and then buttress it with some stats. And I wanted to use Chris Rodriguez’s four-yard TD run as the foundation.
But after scrolling through social media, all I found was this.
Knowing what happened on the play beforehand adds an extra note of sadness to it. In any case, let’s work with what we have. Chris Rodriguez, aka “Not Jacory Croskey-Merritt,” scored Washington’s lone TD. However, with Jayden Daniels back in the lineup, fantasy managers were expecting a drop-off in scoring equity, given the second-year QB’s penchant for running around the goal-line. But the seventh-round rusher has issues outside of whoever is under center.
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Week 6: 71% (rushing rate), 1 (targets), 3 (short-yardage snaps)
The hope was that Bill’s Week 5 breakout against the Chargers was all OC Kliff Kingsbury needed to see. Bill took 70% of the RB totes and posted his second-best single-game rushing success rate of the season (75.0%). And I use that metric specifically because it measures down-to-down efficiency. Washington’s 0% pass rate over expectation emphasizes its willingness to throw when it needs to, but it needs a viable rushing attack to keep it in advantageous situations. And no other rusher has provided the same consistent output. However, the other guys have made an (annoying) impact.
Since Austin Ekeler’s injury, Jeremy McNichols has averaged 11.2 yards after the catch per reception. It’s no wonder he’s been the preferred option in obvious passing situations (78.6% snap rate on third or fourth downs) and has a command of the backfield targets. The aforementioned Rodriguez outweighs Croskey-Merritt by almost 20 lbs and, consequently, has been the only RB to touch the ball from inside the 10-yard line over the last month. And the (hopefully short-term) loss of Daniels does feel like it’ll further complicate things, but we’ve already seen what life is like without No. 5, and it’s not so bad for fantasy purposes.
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Dropback Over Expectation Rate: -5.3% (with Daniels), -5.3% (with Mariota)
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Total Yards per Game: 335.2, 318.0
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Passing Yards per Game: 193.3, 182.0
Here’s where keeping a backup with the same stylistic abilities can keep an offense afloat. Kingsbury can turn up the dial on play-action concepts (30.1% of his dropbacks) and toss in some screens (16.9%) to take the pressure off of Mariota. Plus, with the veteran QB keeping the ball in the short and intermediate parts of the field (7.8 air yards per attempt), receiving options like Deebo Samuel Sr. and Zach Ertz don’t lose value. Facing the Lions, Broncos and Vikings over the next five weeks will drop their projections. Still, with Terry McLaurin out and Luke McCaffrey (2.3 targets per game over his last six) done for the season, a more condensed passing game should keep both pass-catchers on our fantasy radar.
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How to re-Kraft the Packers offense
Society would look like that utopian city meme if we could figure out how to turn off injuries in the NFL. I’m mostly saying this because a world without Tucker Kraft is going to be a rough one. And figuring out what this means for the rest of the Packers offense is just as difficult.
No, I’m not showing Kraft highlights to make everyone (me, I’m everyone) emotional again. I wanted to zoom in on what he did for the offense. Because, without a trade to instantly replace the star TE, Green Bay will have to recreate his production in the aggregate. So, let’s list off a few fantasy-related things the second-year pass-catcher did for Jordan Love:
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Big-bodied receiver capable of working in the short and intermediate part of the field
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Explosive playmaker that could generate yards after the catch
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Reliable option when pass protection broke down
The first part is easy.
At 6’6” and having the same position designation, Luke Musgrave should garner some interest from fantasy managers. However, he’s the «we’ve got food at home» version of Kraft. Coming into Week 9, Musgrave had only run a route on 21% of Love’s dropbacks and spent more of his time attached to the formation. But when he did earn a target, his 11.0-yard aDOT on timing routes at least showed proof of concept that the third-year TE could be a role player if the offense is in rhythm. But he doesn’t have the same speed or knack for picking up yards in chunks like Kraft.
A couple of Love’s receivers will have to take on that job.
I still don’t understand how a player who tore their ACL this calendar year is already back on the field and creating explosives. But at least HC Matt LaFleur has tried to ease Christian Watson back into the offense. Watson’s been at a 70% route rate, but has seen four looks in both games. Two-thirds of his catches have been for long gains. With Matthew Golden also injured, Watson can move from a deep-speed option (23.1-yard aDOT) to the rookie’s intermediate area of the field (12.0) as the team likely uses more quick-game concepts to move the ball.
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But Love still needs a few more guys to bail him out.
It may be a one-week blip, but Savion Williams’ routes and targets jumped during the pass-catcher shuffle after Kraft’s departure. Out of the Packers’ WR corps, the special teams guy was the only one with a similar YAC ability (10.8 from Kraft to 8.1 from Williams). But if not him, Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson can churn out yards while being safety valves for their QB. Jacobs was right behind Kraft in targets if Love was under duress, but with Jacobs’ calf injury, Wilson has seen more routes and touches, making him fantasy viable while the Packers rework their offense.
A win for Denver isn’t always a win for fantasy managers
The Broncos are challenging much of what we believe about fantasy football. Think about it this way: (Typically) We want players on good teams. Denver is one of three teams with the most wins in the AFC. (Usually) We’ll take guys on squads that score a lot of points. Bo Nix’s offense has scored 25.0 PPG, which is 11th-most in the league. And yet, their on-field success doesn’t flow down to our starting rosters.
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Take their passing game, for instance.
Courtland Sutton was the highest-drafted WR by August ADP, but is falling behind his peers. Of the 117 receivers who’ve run more than 100 routes, Sutton ranks 31st in targets per game. After Sunday, Troy Franklin has surpassed the eight-year veteran in total attempts from Nix (64 to 62). Part of the reason is the play calling.
HC Sean Payton has called play action on 28.5% of Nix’s dropbacks (fifth-highest rate of active starters). Franklin has led the team with a 28.4% target rate on those plays. Said another way, the discount version of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connect on the easier stuff, while Sutton, in a worse adaptation of the Tee Higgins’ role, stays on the perimeter. Sutton has just one top-20 finish without finding the end zone. Otherwise, his 9.5 PPR PPG mark has been an anchor. And as Nix sits at 29th in passing success rate, even Franklin’s potential as a WR3 carries volatility. As a result, I’d recommend looking to Denver’s backfield, but that doesn’t inspire any more confidence.
Matt Harmon and I talked about this on Sunday evening, but RJ Harvey’s touchdowns feel like a Siren song. You see the burst, his utility as a receiver, but then you realize, he’s (less than) a part-time player in this offense.
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Week 6: 28% (Snap Rate), 9% (Rushing Share), 16% (Target Rate)
If Harvey saw the field (not even the ball, just the field) more often, there’d be a case for him as an RB3. But he’s stuck in a committee. JK Dobbins is the preferred pass-blocking option with 34 reps to Harvey’s four, according to PFF. Tyler Badie takes the two-minute snaps. Harvey has had one goal-line carry in almost six weeks. Sure, he cashed it in, along with his catches, too. But just like the rest of the offense, each game leaves us with more questions about what to expect the following week than answers.
